JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz deflated presumptions of Android’s success in tablets with an increase in Apple’s projected share of tablets. Having predicted in February that Apple would get 60.8 percent this year, he now thought Apple would get 70.9 percent for 2011 and would still have 62.8 percent in 2012. The assumption that Android tablets would quickly ramp up hadn’t panned out, as none had grown to the point of being a major contender.
“Beyond the iPad, there has not been another high-volume tablet offering, yet,” Moskowitz wrote.
He suspected that Windows 8’s launch might produce a “clear number two,” but not until the second half of 2012, when he presumed Microsoft’s OS would ship. Microsoft is rumored to be rushing Windows 8 to get it out by mid-year but for the past decade has had trouble expanding Windows tablets beyond a niche.
An Amazon Kindle tablet could be a competitive factor. Android could be a liability for it, however, and most of its success would come from the Amazon name and reach.
Total tablet shipments in the field would hit 51.9 million in 2011, the analyst said, up from a prediction of 46.1 million. Most of that increase was due to Apple. Predictions for 2012 were toned down from 76.3 million to 72.4 million. Moskowitz added that continued rises in tablet share were going to keep cutting into PCs, either as direct replacements in some cases or else delaying purchases.
